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Translating Goldman Sachs Top Recommended Trades for 2015 into Bitcoin Derivative Macro Trades

Cross posted from http://www.reddit.com/BitcoinDerivatives/
TL;DR Translating Goldman Sachs ECB QE 2015 trade recommendations into UltraCoin trade setups: Receive exposure to the SPDR Eurostoxx 50 long ETF (speculating that the top 50 EZ equities will rise from currency wars & QE) and pay exposure to the ProShares Ultra Euro ETF (ULE) (with minimum of 2x leverage set in UltraCoin client, up to a practical limit of 50x) seeking to provide twice the exposure to the performance of euro versus the U.S. dollar on a daily basis (speculating the euro will fall relative to the US dollar as a result of currency wars & QE). This trade can be made cleaner by shorting the EURUSD pair directly with a healthy dose of leverage. This would be entered into UltraCoin as "pay" EURUSD (with system leverage set at 50x). Since November 28th, this trade would have been unwound by the UltraCoin server with a near 100% (gross of fees) gain using anything over 7x leverage. There are still some legs left on the trade short term, but we are suspicious of the european equity markets being fully able to benefit from this round of QE to the extent anticipated by the media and sell side analysts.
According to Forbes:
Goldman’s first non-U.S. trade recommendation revolves around an expectation European stock markets rise in 2015 as the impact of ECB money-printing makes its way into the real economy. Goldman recommends investors go long a December 2015 Eurostoxx 50 call spread, buying a Dec. 2015 strike call at 3,150, and selling a Dec. 2015 strike call at 3,450. “The (nearly) at-the-money 3150 call costs 170.6, while selling the 3450 call costs 69.10 (both priced as of the close on November 19), giving this position a maximum potential 2-to-1 payout,” notes Goldman. The firm sees two reasons European stocks will move higher: regional growth simply accelerates, or disappointing inflation readings force the ECB into added action. Both scenarios, Goldman believes, augur well for European asset prices.
First, let's put this in a form that can be traded via UltraCoin. To go long the Eurostoxx 50, we'll receive exposure to the SPDR Eurostoxx 50 long ETF (speculating that the top 50 EZ equities will rise from currency wars & QE) and we will pay exposure to the ProShares Ultra Euro ETF (ULE) seeking to provide twice the exposure to the performance of euro versus the U.S. dollar on a daily basis (speculating the euro will fall relative to the US dollar as a result of currency wars & QE). It should also be noted that leveraged ETF products usually seek to match the return of the euro against the dollar over a single day. Due to this and the compounding of daily returns, the returns of the product may deviate from long term return rates, suggesting that investors need to monitor their holdings closely if they are going to be in for a long time period. It should also be noted that this is a materially more advanced trade setup than that recommended by Goldman, for it captures potential euro downside movement relative to the dollar AND potential european equity market upside -which, according to the Goldman hypothesis, are tightly linked. One would think that Goldman should start recommending trading with UltraCoin, no?
This is what the trade would have done as of Friday's market close.
This trade setup was made before we instituted leverage directly into the system. Now, you can go into the "Advanced" tab and turn the leverage up. We recommend leveraging 2x to 50x, contingent upon your risk tolerance and collateral posting (the more collateral posted, the less chance of getting the contract unwound as your trade goes out of the money. You can also use the direct forex pair EURUSD (levered ETFs suffer from decay issues) and turn the leverage up even more in the UltraCoin client, which gives the same exaggerated price movement, but will track the primary underlying asset more closely. The trade pictured above, would have unwound in your favor by now with anything over 6x leverage with a near 100% return on invested capital. Not bad for 2 and a half months.
See the full analysis. This trade was initially posted on November 28tth, 2014. It did very well. For those who are not familiar with my previous calls, reference: - 1. Reggie Middleton via Wikipedia - 1. A list of many (but not all) of my calls and mentions in the media And a simple walk through video of a sample Ultra-Coin trade: A Simple Apple Trade Using A Pure Bitcoin Wallet: The UltraCoin Client
New comers to BTC derivative trading are urged to download our:
Feel free to contact us.
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Translating Goldman Sachs Top Recommended Trades for 2015 into Bitcoin Derivative Macro Trades

Cross-posted from https://www.reddit.com/BitcoinDerivatives/
TL;DR Translating Goldman Sachs ECB QE 2015 trade recommendations into UltraCoin trade setups: Receive exposure to the SPDR Eurostoxx 50 long ETF (speculating that the top 50 EZ equities will rise from currency wars & QE) and pay exposure to the ProShares Ultra Euro ETF (ULE) (with minimum of 2x leverage set in UltraCoin client, up to a practical limit of 50x) seeking to provide twice the exposure to the performance of euro versus the U.S. dollar on a daily basis (speculating the euro will fall relative to the US dollar as a result of currency wars & QE). This trade can be made cleaner by shorting the EURUSD pair directly with a healthy dose of leverage. This would be entered into UltraCoin as "pay" EURUSD (with system leverage set at 50x). Since November 28th, this trade would have been unwound by the UltraCoin server with a near 100% (gross of fees) gain using anything over 7x leverage. There are still some legs left on the trade short term, but we are suspicious of the european equity markets being fully able to benefit from this round of QE to the extent anticipated by the media and sell side analysts.
According to Forbes:
Goldman’s first non-U.S. trade recommendation revolves around an expectation European stock markets rise in 2015 as the impact of ECB money-printing makes its way into the real economy. Goldman recommends investors go long a December 2015 Eurostoxx 50 call spread, buying a Dec. 2015 strike call at 3,150, and selling a Dec. 2015 strike call at 3,450. “The (nearly) at-the-money 3150 call costs 170.6, while selling the 3450 call costs 69.10 (both priced as of the close on November 19), giving this position a maximum potential 2-to-1 payout,” notes Goldman. The firm sees two reasons European stocks will move higher: regional growth simply accelerates, or disappointing inflation readings force the ECB into added action. Both scenarios, Goldman believes, augur well for European asset prices.
First, let's put this in a form that can be traded via UltraCoin. To go long the Eurostoxx 50, we'll receive exposure to the SPDR Eurostoxx 50 long ETF (speculating that the top 50 EZ equities will rise from currency wars & QE) and we will pay exposure to the ProShares Ultra Euro ETF (ULE) seeking to provide twice the exposure to the performance of euro versus the U.S. dollar on a daily basis (speculating the euro will fall relative to the US dollar as a result of currency wars & QE). It should also be noted that leveraged ETF products usually seek to match the return of the euro against the dollar over a single day. Due to this and the compounding of daily returns, the returns of the product may deviate from long term return rates, suggesting that investors need to monitor their holdings closely if they are going to be in for a long time period. It should also be noted that this is a materially more advanced trade setup than that recommended by Goldman, for it captures potential euro downside movement relative to the dollar AND potential european equity market upside -which, according to the Goldman hypothesis, are tightly linked. One would think that Goldman should start recommending trading with UltraCoin, no?
This is what the trade would have done as of Friday's market close.
This trade setup was made before we instituted leverage directly into the system. Now, you can go into the "Advanced" tab and turn the leverage up. We recommend leveraging 2x to 50x, contingent upon your risk tolerance and collateral posting (the more collateral posted, the less chance of getting the contract unwound as your trade goes out of the money. You can also use the direct forex pair EURUSD (levered ETFs suffer from decay issues) and turn the leverage up even more in the UltraCoin client, which gives the same exaggerated price movement, but will track the primary underlying asset more closely. The trade pictured above, would have unwound in your favor by now with anything over 6x leverage with a near 100% return on invested capital. Not bad for 2 and a half months.
See the full analysis. This trade was initially posted on November 28tth, 2014. It did very well. For those who are not familiar with my previous calls, reference: - 1. Reggie Middleton via Wikipedia - 1. A list of many (but not all) of my calls and mentions in the media And a simple walk through video of a sample Ultra-Coin trade: A Simple Apple Trade Using A Pure Bitcoin Wallet: The UltraCoin Client
New comers to BTC derivative trading are urged to download our:
Feel free to contact us.
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Translating Goldman Sachs Top Recommended Trades for 2015 into Bitcoin Derivative Macro Trades

TL;DR Translating Goldman Sachs ECB QE 2015 trade recommendations into UltraCoin trade setups: Receive exposure to the SPDR Eurostoxx 50 long ETF (speculating that the top 50 EZ equities will rise from currency wars & QE) and pay exposure to the ProShares Ultra Euro ETF (ULE) (with minimum of 2x leverage set in UltraCoin client, up to a practical limit of 50x) seeking to provide twice the exposure to the performance of euro versus the U.S. dollar on a daily basis (speculating the euro will fall relative to the US dollar as a result of currency wars & QE). This trade can be made cleaner by shorting the EURUSD pair directly with a healthy dose of leverage. This would be entered into UltraCoin as "pay" EURUSD (with system leverage set at 50x). Since November 28th, this trade would have been unwound by the UltraCoin server with a near 100% (gross of fees) gain using anything over 7x leverage. There are still some legs left on the trade short term, but we are suspicious of the european equity markets being fully able to benefit from this round of QE to the extent anticipated by the media and sell side analysts.
According to Forbes:
Goldman’s first non-U.S. trade recommendation revolves around an expectation European stock markets rise in 2015 as the impact of ECB money-printing makes its way into the real economy. Goldman recommends investors go long a December 2015 Eurostoxx 50 call spread, buying a Dec. 2015 strike call at 3,150, and selling a Dec. 2015 strike call at 3,450. “The (nearly) at-the-money 3150 call costs 170.6, while selling the 3450 call costs 69.10 (both priced as of the close on November 19), giving this position a maximum potential 2-to-1 payout,” notes Goldman. The firm sees two reasons European stocks will move higher: regional growth simply accelerates, or disappointing inflation readings force the ECB into added action. Both scenarios, Goldman believes, augur well for European asset prices.
First, let's put this in a form that can be traded via UltraCoin. To go long the Eurostoxx 50, we'll receive exposure to the SPDR Eurostoxx 50 long ETF (speculating that the top 50 EZ equities will rise from currency wars & QE) and we will pay exposure to the ProShares Ultra Euro ETF (ULE) seeking to provide twice the exposure to the performance of euro versus the U.S. dollar on a daily basis (speculating the euro will fall relative to the US dollar as a result of currency wars & QE). It should also be noted that leveraged ETF products usually seek to match the return of the euro against the dollar over a single day. Due to this and the compounding of daily returns, the returns of the product may deviate from long term return rates, suggesting that investors need to monitor their holdings closely if they are going to be in for a long time period. It should also be noted that this is a materially more advanced trade setup than that recommended by Goldman, for it captures potential euro downside movement relative to the dollar AND potential european equity market upside -which, according to the Goldman hypothesis, are tightly linked. One would think that Goldman should start recommending trading with UltraCoin, no?
This is what the trade would have done as of Friday's market close.
This trade setup was made before we instituted leverage directly into the system. Now, you can go into the "Advanced" tab and turn the leverage up. We recommend leveraging 2x to 50x, contingent upon your risk tolerance and collateral posting (the more collateral posted, the less chance of getting the contract unwound as your trade goes out of the money. You can also use the direct forex pair EURUSD (levered ETFs suffer from decay issues) and turn the leverage up even more in the UltraCoin client, which gives the same exaggerated price movement, but will track the primary underlying asset more closely. The trade pictured above, would have unwound in your favor by now with anything over 6x leverage with a near 100% return on invested capital. Not bad for 2 and a half months.
See the full analysis. This trade was initially posted on November 28tth, 2014. It did very well. For those who are not familiar with my previous calls, reference: - 1. Reggie Middleton via Wikipedia - 1. A list of many (but not all) of my calls and mentions in the media And a simple walk through video of a sample Ultra-Coin trade: A Simple Apple Trade Using A Pure Bitcoin Wallet: The UltraCoin Client
New comers to BTC derivative trading are urged to download our:
Feel free to contact us.
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to BitcoinDerivatives [link] [comments]

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